As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 presidential election, one reality remains irrefutable: Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is an unstoppable force. His political trajectory, resilience, and widespread national appeal make his candidacy not just viable but inevitable. For those who doubt his resolve or believe they can sideline him, the data tells a different story. He is in the race, and the only question left is whether his opponents are prepared to face him at the primaries or in the general election.

A critical review of the 2023 presidential election reveals that Atiku Abubakar’s performance was not a failure of strategy but a result of calculated disruptions,primarily by the G5 Governors and the unexpected surge of the Labour Party (LP). Analysing these elements provides clarity on why Atiku remains the PDP’s best bet for 2027.

The actions of the G5 Governors,Nyesom Wike, Seyi Makinde, Samuel Ortom, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, and Okezie Ikpeazu, significantly weakened the PDP in key strongholds but with minor impact. The numbers below demonstrate their impact across six states:

Rivers State → APC (231,591) – PDP (88,468) = 143,123 vote loss

Oyo State → APC (449,884) – PDP (182,977) = 266,907 vote loss

Benue State → LP (308,372) – PDP (130,081) = 178,291 vote loss

Cross River State → APC (130,520) – PDP (95,425) = 35,095 vote loss

Abia State → PDP (22,676) – APC (8,914) = 13,762 vote margin (PDP ahead)

Enugu State → PDP (15,749) – APC (4,772) = 10,977 vote margin (PDP ahead)

A comparison of the 2019 and 2023 elections in these states shows how the G5’s disruptive actions impacted the PDP:

PDP Margins in 2019 vs. 2023.

Rivers: 2019 (+323,261) → 2023 (-143,123) → Loss of -180,139 votes

Oyo: 2019 (+1,461) → 2023 (-266,907) → Loss of -265,446 votes

Benue: 2019 (+9,149) → 2023 (-178,291) → Loss of -169,142 votes

Cross River: 2019 (+178,435) → 2023 (-35,095) → Loss of 213,530 votes

Abia: 2019 (+134,640) → 2023 (+13,762) → Loss of 120,878 votes

Enugu: 2019 (+301,130) → 2023 (+10,977) → Loss of 290,153 votes

Impact of the G5 on APC’s Votes (2019 vs. 2023)

Rivers: +80,881

Oyo: +84,655

Cross River: +13,218

Abia: -76,144

Enugu: -49,651

Benue: -37,200

Total additional votes for APC: +178,754
Total votes lost for APC: -162,995
Net APC gain/loss across six states: +15,759 votes

The G5’s rebellion resulted in a total direct loss of 535,568 votes for the PDP. If we assume the APC had zero votes in these states in 2019, the total direct loss due to the G5’s influence rises to 623,416 votes.

Expanding this trend to other affected states, a reasonable estimate suggests an additional 311,708 votes lost, bringing the total disruption to 935,124 votes.

Despite their attempts to weaken Atiku’s chances, the G5 Governors themselves faced severe political consequences:

Samuel Ortom lost his senatorial bid, and PDP lost the Benue governorship.

Okezie Ikpeazu failed to secure a PDP successor and lost his senatorial election.

Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi lost his senatorial bid to LP despite PDP holding the governorship.

Seyi Makinde retained his governorship but saw PDP lose all three senatorial seats and ten out of fourteen House of Representatives seats.

Nyesom Wike, now a minister, faces continued political battles with his successor.

Even Ayo Fayose, whose influence in Ekiti was already diminished, claims to have boosted APC’s presidential vote count, his son contesting for House of Representatives could not even come fifth in his election,yet the obvious truth remains,regional sentiment in the Southwest, fueled by Tinubu’s “Emilokan” rhetoric and ethnic bias against another Fulani presidency, played a more significant role in Atiku’s loss in the region.

The Labour Party’s performance in 2023 was unprecedented and had a more direct impact on PDP’s loss than the G5’s actions.

LP vs. APC in Key States.

Abia: LP (327,095) vs. APC (8,914)

Rivers: LP (175,071) vs. APC (231,591)

Oyo: LP (99,110) vs. APC (449,884)

Enugu: LP (428,640) vs. APC (4,772)

Benue: LP (308,372) vs. APC (310,468)

Cross River: LP (179,917) vs. APC (130,520)

LP vs. PDP in Key States

Abia: LP (327,095) vs. PDP (22,676)

Rivers: LP (175,071) vs. PDP (88,468)

Oyo: LP (99,110) vs. PDP (182,977)

Enugu: LP (428,640) vs. PDP (15,749)

Benue: LP (308,372) vs. PDP (130,081)

Cross River: LP (179,917) vs. PDP (95,425)

These figures prove that LP’s emergence,not just internal PDP divisions,was a primary factor in reshaping the 2023 electoral outcome.

Atiku’s 6,984,520 votes in 2023 solidify his position as PDP’s most formidable presidential candidate. Even with the exaggerated G5-induced loss of 935,124 votes, his performance remains formidable.

Furthermore, Peter Obi’s 6,101,533 votes were largely driven by a one-time surge of youthful and ethnoreligious sentiment, which may not be as impactful in 2027.

Politics, they say, is a game of numbers, but leave it to the G5 to attempt rewriting arithmetic with political magic! It is one of the grandest jokes of the season,nay, of the decade,that a group whose combined electoral strength amounted to a laughable 935,164 votes in 2023 now believes it has the moral standing to instruct Atiku Abubakar and his towering 6,984,520 votes to vacate the stage for them. If political comedy were a genre at the Oscars, this performance by the G5 would sweep every category.

These were the same men who, instead of rallying behind their party, embarked on a nationwide circus of betrayal, dancing to their own discordant tune while APC laughed her way to power. They were the saboteurs of yesterday, yet today, they demand the trust and support of the same people they worked against. The very ticket they fought so hard to undermine in 2023 is now the prize they covet for 2027. Shakespeare himself would have struggled to script a better tragedy laced with irony.

One wonders: is their agenda truly about winning power for the PDP, or is this just another carefully packaged ploy to elongate Tinubu’s misrule? After all, a divided house is a conquered house, and the G5 seems more interested in scattering the house than rebuilding it. Having sacrificed the party on the altar of personal vendetta in 2023, they now expect a coronation in 2027. What next? Shall we invite the hunter to lead the antelope’s family meeting?

Atiku’s 6.9 million supporters stood firm, unwavering in their belief in a Nigeria that works. They did not jump ship at the scent of personal gain. They fought for justice, for democracy, and for the future. And now, the very men who threw the party under the bus are returning, expecting red carpets and ovations? It is laughable, preposterous, and politically suicidal.

If the G5 is truly serious about PDP’s success, let them first apologise to the party faithful whom they deceived. Let them admit their political misadventure and make genuine efforts at atonement. Until then, their sermons on unity are nothing but the croaking of frogs in the pond of irrelevance.

For Atiku to reclaim power, PDP must adopt a structured approach or form a mega-party coalition. The key strategies include:

1. Rebuilding Party Unity – Preventing future betrayals like the G5’s defection.

2. Strategic Political Alliances – Forming coalitions with credible third-force movements.

3. Aggressive Voter Mobilisation – Re-engaging core PDP supporters and swaying undecided voters.

4. Highlighting APC’s Failures – Exposing the economic hardship and political manipulation under APC rule.

With these strategies in place, Atiku Abubakar remains the inevitable choice for 2027.

This battle for 2027 is not just about PDP vs. APC; it’s about reclaiming democracy from a manipulative system. Atiku Abubakar is the answer.